Heat-related deaths in Europe have already exceeded 30,000

Record temperatures as early as June and several prolonged heat waves have led to a massive excess mortality rate in Europe. Preliminary estimates put the number of heat-related deaths this year at over 30,000. For Germany, the Robert Koch Institute recently reported a mortality rate of 14,000 people due to heat waves, exceeding the record set in 2018. Approximately 9,600 of the 14,000 heat-related deaths in Germany can be attributed to the exceptionally hot last two weeks of June, when weekly average temperatures reached 21.1 and 26.4 degrees.
The above-average temperatures since June are taking a toll on the physical and mental well-being of many people. The prolonged heat can lead to problems, especially for older adults, children, patients with cardiovascular and mental health conditions, and people with limited mobility. Especially in urban centers, where nighttime temperatures do not drop enough, and in apartments that become very hot, the strain on residents increases significantly.
Estimates from the EuroMomo monitoring platform have shown that more than 32,000 additional deaths occurred in Europe between mid-July and mid-August alone. In each country, national authorities calculate the mortality rate associated with heat; in Germany, for example, this is done by the Robert Koch Institute (RKI), and in Austria by AGES. Different parameters are used in the statistical models to calculate excess mortality.
Calculation is based on estimates
Heat-related deaths can only be determined through statistical estimates and computational models, and are based on a comparison between the number of deaths expected for the season and the actual number of deaths, combined with average weekly temperatures. The main reason for this is that people do not die directly from heat, but rather from causes such as heart attacks, circulatory failure, multiple organ failure, or accidents—that is, a combination of heat exposure and pre-existing medical conditions. Only in a few cases does heat exposure lead directly to death, such as in cases of heatstroke.
Therefore, heat is not usually listed as the underlying cause of death on a death certificate. Instead, statistical methods must be used to estimate the extent of heat-related deaths.
According to the RKI, “heat” begins at an average weekly temperature of “about 20°C” and is calculated based on the average of the daily and nighttime temperatures over the course of a week from 52 weather stations throughout Germany. These are always estimates with a certain margin of variation.

Heat poses a particular threat to older adults
According to the latest “Weekly Reports on Heat-Related Mortality” published by the Robert Koch Institute (RKI), the largest proportion of heat-related deaths occurs among people aged 75 and older—with those aged 85 and older being disproportionately affected. This is due, among other things, to the fact that many people in this age group live in retirement and nursing homes that do not yet have adequate cooling systems. Overall, in absolute terms, more women than men die as a result of heat. However, this can be attributed to the high proportion of women in the older age groups.
“Germany is currently going through a transitional phase. The fact that heat waves are occurring regularly is a new phenomenon. Neither our buildings nor our habits are adapted to this. We can see the effects in the death tolls.”
Matthias an der Heiden, statistician at the RKI
Links
AGES Heat-Related Mortality Monitoring











